EDF’s 27% January energy bill forecast explained: £2,192 vs £1,723

Written by: EnergySwitch editorial team · Last reviewed: 27 October 2026

Direct answer: EDF forecasts that Ofgem’s energy price cap will rise to £2,192 a year from 1 January 2027 for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. That is £469, or about 27%, more than today’s official cap of £1,723. The figure is in EDF’s own predictions table, last updated on 26 October 2026. It is a forecast, not an Ofgem decision. Ofgem will announce the real January–March 2027 cap by 25 November 2026.

Below we set out exactly what EDF published, how it compares with other forecasts, why forecasters say prices are rising and what you can do now. For every forecast with its date, see our January 2027 price cap forecast tracker.

What EDF has forecast

We checked EDF’s price cap predictions page on 27 October 2026. Its table, marked “Tables last updated: 26 October 2026”, shows the following for a typical household using 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year, paying by Direct Debit.

Where the 27% comes from. EDF’s page gives the £2,192 figure rather than a percentage. Press reports on 26 and 27 October, including The Sun and The National (citing The Times), describe it as a 27.2% rise. That matches our own arithmetic: £2,192 is £469 above £1,723, which is 27.2%. Spread over a year, £469 is about £39 a month for typical use.

EDF’s table only covers typical use. It is not a forecast of any one household’s bill, and it is not a forecast of EDF’s own tariff prices: the price cap applies to standard variable tariffs from every supplier.

How EDF compares with other January forecasts

EDF’s figure is the highest January forecast we could verify on a forecaster’s own website on 27 October 2026, but most supplier forecasts are now close together.

All of these are forecasts. Cornwall Insight’s lower figure is based on older wholesale prices. Sources, confidence ratings and the uSwitch average are on our forecast tracker.

Why forecasters expect prices to rise

Ofgem sets the wholesale part of each cap from prices observed over a fixed window before the cap period, so rising wholesale gas and electricity prices now feed into January’s cap. Forecasters give these reasons:

• EDF says on its predictions page that wholesale prices rose over the past week, “driven by geopolitical uncertainty and lower-than-expected EU gas storage levels”, and that its January forecast mainly reflects higher wholesale costs linked to geopolitical events in the Middle East.
• EDF also says the bigger rises from April 2027 onwards are due to new information from NESO, the National Energy System Operator, about the expected cost of balancing the electricity network.
• Cornwall Insight said on 30 September that the January rise is largely driven by the conflict in the Middle East disrupting gas supplies, and that price rises already seen in Ofgem’s observation window make a January increase “all but certain”.

EDF also warns that market conditions remain volatile and prices “could move in either direction”. These are the forecasters’ views, not Ofgem statements.

Who would be affected

• Standard variable (default) tariffs: your unit rates and standing charges follow the cap, so they would change on 1 January to whatever Ofgem sets.
• Prepayment meters: default prepayment tariffs are capped too, at their own rates.
• Fixed tariffs: your rates stay the same until the fix ends. Ofgem says around 35% of households, about 11 million, are on fixed tariffs. Check your end date, because if it falls in early 2027 you would roll onto variable rates.

The cap limits rates, not total bills, so what you pay still depends on how much energy you use. VAT on domestic electricity is 0% from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, and gas keeps 5% VAT. See VAT off electricity from October 2026.

What Ofgem has actually set

The only official cap is for 1 October – 31 December 2026: £1,723 a year for typical Direct Debit dual-fuel use. Electricity is 26.32p/kWh with a 54.83p daily standing charge, and gas is 7.97p/kWh with a 29.68p daily standing charge (GB averages). Ofgem will announce the January–March 2027 cap by 25 November 2026 and the April–June 2027 cap by 23 February 2027. Full rates are on our energy price cap hub.

What to do now

1. Check what tariff you are on, and any fixed deal’s end date and exit fee.
2. Find your annual usage on a recent statement. Forecasts use typical figures, not yours.
3. Compare a fix against the cap for your own usage with our fix vs price cap calculator. Our guide should I fix my energy deal before winter 2026? explains the trade-offs.
4. Look at deals for your usage, not just the headline price. Our cheapest energy deals guide explains what to check.
5. Submit a meter reading before 1 January so you are billed accurately either side of any change.
6. Re-check after 25 November, when Ofgem publishes the real figures.
7. If you are struggling to pay, contact your supplier early. Ofgem says suppliers should help you agree an affordable repayment plan.

FAQ

Is EDF saying energy bills will rise 27% in January?

EDF’s own predictions table, last updated 26 October 2026, forecasts the January–March 2027 price cap at £2,192 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. That is £469, or about 27%, above the current £1,723 cap. It is a forecast, which EDF rates “low” confidence, not a confirmed rise.

Has Ofgem confirmed the January 2027 price cap?

No. As of 27 October 2026, Ofgem has not announced the January–March 2027 cap. It says it will do so by 25 November 2026. Until then, £1,723 is the only official figure.

What does EDF forecast for April 2027?

EDF’s table shows £2,389 a year from 1 April 2027, rated “very low” confidence, then £2,157 from July 2027 and £2,131 from October 2027. Ofgem will not set the April cap until February 2027.

Does the EDF forecast only apply to EDF customers?

No. EDF is forecasting Ofgem’s price cap, which limits the rates on standard variable tariffs from every supplier in Great Britain. It is not a forecast of EDF’s own tariff prices.

Will my bill go up by £469?

Not necessarily. £469 is the gap between EDF’s forecast and today’s cap for typical use of 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year. Your change depends on your usage, region, payment method and tariff, and on what Ofgem actually sets. If you are on a fixed deal, the cap change does not affect your rates until the fix ends.

Should I fix my energy now because of the EDF forecast?

Don’t decide on one forecast. Compare any fixed deal against the capped rates for your own usage, including exit fees, with our fix vs price cap calculator, and check the end date of any current fix. Our guide should I fix my energy deal before winter 2026? goes through the trade-offs.

Sources

• EDF, Energy price cap predictions (tables last updated 26 October 2026, checked 27 October 2026), forecast
• Ofgem, Changes to energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2026 (26 August 2026), including announcement dates
• Ofgem, Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026 (26 August 2026)
• Cornwall Insight, 16% Price Cap Rise Forecast in January (30 September 2026), forecast
• E.ON Next, Energy price cap predictions (as of 26 October 2026), forecast
• British Gas, Energy price cap predictions (updated 15 October 2026), forecast
• OVO, Energy price cap predictions (table last updated 20 October 2026), forecast
• Press coverage (secondary): The Sun, Fresh energy bill blow for millions as households face huge hike in January (27 October 2026); The National, Energy bills ‘may soar by 27 per cent in just two months’, EDF warns (October 2026)

Figures checked against the sources above on 27 October 2026. This guide covers Great Britain. EnergySwitch is an independent comparison and guidance site; forecasts are reported, not endorsed.